Wednesday’s clash between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs could go a long way in determining who wins the Atlantic Division.
The Cats, Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning have been locked in a dead heat for the last two months, with each team topping the division at certain points of that span.
The Leafs enter Wednesday night with a two-point lead over the Cats and a one-point edge over the Bolts, with eight games remaining for all three teams.
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Toronto is a -120 favorite over Florida on Wednesday.
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Panthers vs. Maple Leafs betting preview
The Maple Leafs are at an interesting place with two weeks remaining in the season.
Toronto’s record suggests it’s one of the best teams in the NHL, but its statistical profile is lacking compared to the heavyweights.
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The Maple Leafs rank eighth overall in 5-on-5 goal difference, but they’re 23rd in expected goals rate and 17th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.
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That tells you that Toronto – a team with three of the best forwards in the NHL – is winning games thanks to elite goaltending, above anything else.
There’s nothing wrong with relying on your goaltenders to help you succeed, but Toronto’s 5-on-5 play needs to improve if it is going to make any noise in the playoffs.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs pick
This is a tricky schedule spot for the Panthers. They’re on the second leg of a back-to-back and are playing their third game in four nights.
The fact that Toronto is only a -120 favorite despite being at home and in a good schedule situation tells you everything you need to know about how the betting market views the Leafs right now.
You can likely wait out the betting market and get a better number than this as punters realize the schedule spot for the Panthers, but anything plus-money on the Cats is worth a hard look.
The Pick: Panthers +100
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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